Baidu Monthly Traffic Tracker: July 2007

Topic: The first month of Q3 (July) has passed. What was Baidu's traffic growth rate QoQ (July vs. April)?

Data: Traffic to Baidu.com was up 7.5% QoQ in July (vs. April), according to our tracking of ~1,000 highly monetizable keywords on Baidu.com. The keywords we selected represent all the major industries including real estate, finance, IT, transportation, apparel, chemicals, machinery, sports, e-commerce, and so on. The appendix is the July and April data on a portion of the ~1,000 keywords tracked by China Analyst. To verify the accuracy of our tracking, please visit Baidu Index, where the company discloses search query data.

Analysis: We think the 7.5% growth in July vs. April was not bad for two reasons:

1. Traffic is not the only revenue driver. For a search engine, Paid Search Revenue = Total Searches (Traffic) x Click-through Rate (CTR) x Cost-per-Click (CPC). This shows traffic is not the only revenue driver for Baidu. In fact, in Q2 2007, Baidu's total revenue was up 47.6% QoQ while its traffic only increased 16.2%. This means the other two factors jointly contributed 27.0% QoQ growth, as shown in this equation: 147.6%=(1+16.2%)x(1+27.0%).

2. Implication for meeting Q3 guidance. Baidu's Q3 revenue guidance ($64.6M-$66.5M) implies a 23%-26% QoQ growth. For Baidu to meet the mid-point of this guidance (24.5% QoQ growth), the other two factors only need to jointly contribute 15.8% QoQ growth, as shown in this equation: 124.5%=(1+7.5%)*(1+15.8%). The assumption of this calculation is that for the remaining two months of Q3, QoQ traffic growth remains at the 7.5% level.

Our Baidu Monthly Traffic Tracker will continue to monitor the traffic pattern going forward. And we suggest that investors look into the July, April, and Q2 data for more information.

Appendix: A Portion of Keywords Tracked by China Analyst

Keyword	July Total Searches	April Total Searches	QoQ Growth
汽车	4,075,973	2,793,059	46%
基金	1,147,496	1,086,815	6%
pp	950,677	1,156,539	-18%
mp4	578,398	478,727	21%
博客	489,180	525,365	-7%
邮箱	325,996	370,709	-12%
播放器	319,858	332,210	-4%
万年历	252,464	223,884	13%
数码相机	238,018	296,063	-20%
短信	228,811	265,590	-14%
三星	206,708	197,289	5%
股市行情	198,028	253,459	-22%
nokia	185,473	148,745	25%
爱情	183,179	188,273	-3%
电脑	180,606	183,416	-2%
股市	172,174	205,523	-16%
奇瑞qq	152,458	50,943	199%
心理测试	151,776	157,277	-3%
dell	147,808	114,847	29%
ps	147,436	87,922	68%
宝马	144,708	44,305	227%
交友	135,315	132,394	2%
职业装	131,471	120,937	9%
索爱	126,356	100,203	26%
hp	122,047	106,042	15%
当当	120,900	92,585	31%
加盟	120,311	94,933	27%
汽车报价	116,901	105,565	11%
论文	114,297	217,399	-47%
简历	110,639	115,184	-4%
考研	109,988	137,100	-20%
汽车网	103,633	81,087	28%
ibm	100,440	92,022	9%
免费邮箱	100,130	141,664	-29%
惠普	96,999	97,441	0%
招商	93,248	86,891	7%
教育	91,326	115,757	-21%
java	90,644	90,212	0%
代理服务器	90,551	87,141	4%
上网助手	88,629	104,112	-15%
cad	85,126	80,302	6%
物流	84,599	77,713	9%
戴尔	83,421	81,645	2%
cect	82,677	75,273	10%
测试	82,274	64,220	28%
玩具	81,189	73,317	11%
北大青鸟	79,484	69,887	14%
代理	79,360	81,632	-3%
车	77,655	69,048	12%
刀剑	76,198	68,097	12%
sony	75,795	80,026	-5%
域名	74,369	79,629	-7%
计算器	74,028	33,774	119%
房产	73,842	102,733	-28%
cpu	73,253	71,015	3%
佳能	69,905	88,099	-21%
ipod	67,332	60,251	12%
moto	65,937	59,524	11%
花	65,472	84,282	-22%
服饰	64,790	65,279	-1%
mba	64,480	71,457	-10%
mba	64,480	71,457	-10%
blog	63,395	56,207	13%
mp3播放器	62,930	78,774	-20%
日历	62,434	45,824	36%
电子	62,000	58,186	7%
会计	61,814	62,892	-2%
招生	60,729	24,857	144%
计算机	60,264	57,166	5%
日语	56,513	54,048	5%
博客网	56,265	53,456	5%
lg	56,234	48,462	16%
化工	55,056	48,728	13%
汇率	54,281	43,204	26%
汇率	54,281	43,204	26%
五金	54,250	45,536	19%
led	53,537	34,616	55%
服务器	53,196	66,731	-20%
塑料	52,979	37,364	42%
pda	52,173	32,878	59%
保险	52,173	95,370	-45%
李宁	52,080	40,822	28%
李宁	52,080	40,822	28%
法律	51,925	56,084	-7%
生日礼物	47,430	49,504	-4%
宾馆	47,244	36,041	31%
汽车音响	46,531	26,549	75%
韩语	45,601	36,752	24%
奇瑞	45,446	58,598	-22%
3g	45,291	43,160	5%
autocad	45,198	49,953	-10%
开店	45,167	41,960	8%
虚拟主机	44,609	72,918	-39%
翡翠	43,059	28,689	50%
qd	42,873	35,568	21%
货架	42,346	39,041	8%
飞利浦	41,850	41,744	0%
飞利浦	41,850	41,744	0%
机床	41,726	54,462	-23%
橡果国际	41,726	27,199	53%
e2	40,982	41,882	-2%
佳能数码相机	40,765	59,047	-31%
爱情测试	40,610	27,337	49%
不锈钢	40,579	28,810	41%
电池	40,300	29,333	37%
轴承	39,649	67,001	-41%
主板	39,618	46,808	-15%
工作	39,556	33,429	18%
西门子	38,781	36,347	7%
西门子	38,781	36,347	7%
网络加速器	38,285	32,592	17%
婚姻法	37,975	35,406	7%
奔驰	37,293	30,918	21%
丰田	37,231	31,312	19%
阀门	36,611	39,655	-8%
ups	36,518	31,161	17%
餐饮	36,487	35,012	4%
sd	36,301	29,613	23%
开关	35,774	26,292	36%
爱你	35,278	33,883	4%
汽车配件	34,565	33,807	2%
声卡	34,348	34,869	-1%
eva	33,139	29,124	14%
首饰	33,015	32,541	1%
操盘手	32,643	27,637	18%
soho	32,457	29,269	11%
奇瑞汽车	32,333	58,829	-45%
epson	32,271	33,272	-3%
鼠标	32,209	30,298	6%
征婚	32,116	39,062	-18%
快乐西游	32,085	29,312	9%
diy	31,806	27,826	14%
健康网	31,806	41,702	-24%
环保	31,806	67,536	-53%
邮政编码	31,806	29,983	6%
电器	31,372	31,961	-2%
dv	31,248	28,644	9%
婚庆	31,031	46,535	-33%
冰箱	30,969	28,818	7%
物流管理	30,938	24,553	26%
润滑油	30,783	29,449	5%
军刀	30,287	12,599	140%
航班	30,256	28,691	5%
pvc	30,194	25,526	18%
t恤	30,132	18,576	62%
canon	29,853	29,365	2%
浪琴	29,822	14,442	106%
索尼数码相机	29,791	43,813	-32%
花卉	29,698	44,327	-33%
武术	29,605	33,812	-12%
礼物	29,512	28,859	2%
吉利	29,481	26,396	12%
电机	29,450	28,626	3%
kitty	29,388	12,849	129%
电缆	29,357	28,403	3%
nec	29,326	27,047	8%
e龙	29,233	31,255	-6%
e龙	29,233	31,255	-6%
本田	29,233	28,215	4%
方正电脑	29,140	27,422	6%
钢铁	29,140	30,013	-3%
刀	28,892	28,336	2%
长安汽车	28,799	29,012	-1%
长安汽车	28,799	29,012	-1%
polo	28,768	27,306	5%
购物网	28,737	26,919	7%
加速器	28,706	25,732	12%
数码	28,551	51,016	-44%
爱普生	28,520	29,685	-4%
网球	28,520	27,088	5%
机电	28,427	18,073	57%
免费域名	28,396	33,447	-15%
别克	28,396	27,128	5%
速腾	28,396	27,297	4%
吉利汽车	28,303	25,270	12%
橡胶	28,303	28,961	-2%
elong	28,210	26,917	5%
收音机	28,148	26,235	7%
传感器	28,117	30,575	-8%
plc	28,055	28,763	-2%
mp4播放器	27,993	28,537	-2%
橱柜	27,962	27,894	0%
华晨骏捷	27,900	28,975	-4%
u盘	27,838	30,204	-8%
蛋糕	27,838	27,227	2%
东方航空	27,776	27,576	1%
东方航空	27,776	27,576	1%
only	27,745	26,593	4%
三星数码相机	27,745	31,317	-11%
汽车美容	27,714	33,407	-17%
二手汽车	27,683	27,879	-1%
凯美瑞	27,652	27,039	2%
玉	27,652	27,205	2%
pe	27,559	23,878	15%
usb	27,373	27,677	-1%
电梯	27,342	27,822	-2%
凯旋	27,311	26,641	3%
auto cad	27,218	27,438	-1%
贷款	27,218	28,078	-3%
发电机	27,063	26,832	1%
pcb	26,908	23,403	15%
数码摄像机	26,815	30,822	-13%
燕窝	26,598	19,378	37%
东风汽车	26,505	26,537	0%
东风汽车	26,505	26,537	0%
suv	26,474	25,100	5%
打火机	26,443	24,817	7%
风机	26,443	27,238	-3%
婷美	26,226	24,198	8%
夏普	26,195	22,413	17%
破碎机	26,164	21,761	20%
大众汽车	25,761	23,214	11%
背包	25,761	20,960	23%
文曲星	25,637	26,211	-2%
银饰	25,451	17,896	42%
相框	25,265	25,537	-1%
体育器材	25,203	11,073	128%
丰田汽车	25,172	20,406	23%
玉器	25,172	20,908	20%
雨燕	25,141	23,632	6%
招生网	25,110	8,032	213%
和田玉	24,955	24,697	1%
激光	24,831	28,667	-13%
瑞丽服饰	24,769	24,877	0%
机器人	24,645	27,814	-11%
过滤器	24,645	21,285	16%
合租	24,614	20,691	19%
诚信	24,552	36,944	-34%
如烟	24,242	12,687	91%
北京房产	24,118	20,893	15%
触摸屏	24,056	22,822	5%
风筝	24,025	28,497	-16%
升降机	23,870	23,123	3%
软件测试	23,870	26,675	-11%
别墅	23,405	26,888	-13%
袜子	23,374	21,711	8%
箱包	23,343	21,974	6%
喷码机	23,281	19,786	18%
火锅	23,219	22,871	2%
夏利	23,157	26,154	-11%
商铺	23,095	13,113	76%
数码照相机	23,064	27,077	-15%
法律论文	23,033	28,094	-18%
ic	22,971	22,289	3%
最新汽车报价	22,909	20,838	10%
健身器材	22,878	27,228	-16%
房屋租赁	22,816	17,577	30%
手套	22,754	27,398	-17%
珍珠	22,506	14,035	60%
天籁	22,134	19,030	16%
abb	21,917	20,919	5%
旗袍	21,886	17,866	23%
包	21,762	19,033	14%
北京宾馆	21,669	17,831	22%
滑板	21,297	15,796	35%
韩国服饰	21,297	21,435	-1%
控制器	21,266	20,251	5%
机箱	21,142	19,453	9%
航空	20,894	20,422	2%
充电器	20,801	23,951	-13%
集邮	20,739	26,177	-21%
弹簧	20,460	14,150	45%
床	20,398	20,306	0%
粉碎机	19,995	19,408	3%
lcd	19,964	24,507	-19%
化工网	19,964	22,953	-13%
曲美	19,871	25,983	-24%
货运	19,840	23,826	-17%
代理商	19,747	15,427	28%
蓄电池	19,716	18,412	7%
珍珠粉	19,623	17,931	9%
布艺	19,561	24,124	-19%
领带	19,406	15,956	22%
化肥	19,282	23,613	-18%
电线	19,251	23,020	-16%
车市	19,158	19,199	0%
批发	19,034	17,695	8%
puma	19,003	19,765	-4%
冰淇淋	18,817	27,340	-31%
衬衫	18,445	19,870	-7%
计数器	18,383	19,423	-5%
灯饰	18,352	28,145	-35%
足疗	18,290	17,002	8%
招商引资	18,259	16,081	14%
西服	18,259	21,268	-14%
pet	18,228	15,683	16%
买房	17,794	15,324	16%
韩国料理	17,577	12,738	38%
传真机	17,546	21,847	-20%
b2b	17,329	15,435	12%
converse	17,298	17,042	2%
电容	17,298	18,719	-8%
招商网	17,236	21,276	-19%
标致206	17,205	18,349	-6%
融资	17,174	12,609	36%
tiffany	17,019	14,430	18%
快餐	16,554	16,631	0%
鼠标垫	16,523	7,835	111%
电脑桌	16,492	17,162	-4%
dsp	16,399	15,715	4%
剑	16,399	16,341	0%
花店	16,399	26,482	-38%
工作服	16,089	20,748	-22%
瓷器	15,996	22,350	-28%
超声波	15,934	19,906	-20%
沼气	15,872	14,989	6%
e龙网	15,593	16,802	-7%
电气	15,562	22,237	-30%
机柜	15,314	18,413	-17%
民航	15,314	12,688	21%
换热器	15,252	13,230	15%
消防器材	15,159	24,687	-39%
胶带	14,973	19,422	-23%
齿轮	14,973	18,021	-17%
打包机	14,911	12,755	17%
背靠背	14,911	11,033	35%
手提电脑	14,756	17,471	-16%
房产网	14,632	13,280	10%
整体橱柜	14,477	14,459	0%
3m	14,229	13,874	3%
餐饮加盟	14,198	16,309	-13%
名表	14,043	12,782	10%
轴承网	13,950	12,326	13%
levi's	13,888	14,623	-5%
服务器租用	13,857	21,744	-36%
厨具	13,826	23,868	-42%
生物柴油	13,826	16,091	-14%
戒烟	13,547	17,493	-23%
剪板机	13,330	12,748	5%
郁金香	13,175	17,593	-25%
电阻	13,051	15,118	-14%
lee	12,803	12,642	1%
步进电机	12,741	21,224	-40%
北京饭店	12,617	12,338	2%
床垫	12,555	13,439	-7%
背背佳	12,493	9,431	32%
海绵	12,338	14,352	-14%
建外soho	11,997	10,746	12%
五金配件	11,811	11,928	-1%
钻戒	11,811	12,798	-8%
北京房屋租赁	11,780	9,679	22%
整体厨房	11,780	11,563	2%
苏州旅游	11,718	19,032	-38%
麦琪的礼物	11,718	8,411	39%
jack jones	11,687	14,029	-17%
灯	11,687	13,393	-13%
三极管	11,656	12,258	-5%
北京合租	11,656	12,005	-3%
阿玛尼	11,501	10,583	9%
阳光100	11,315	9,794	16%
变送器	11,284	11,528	-2%
风扇	11,253	9,996	13%
柴油	11,191	13,314	-16%
锁	11,191	16,903	-34%
面包	11,036	14,401	-23%
omega	10,943	8,795	24%
玛瑙	10,943	9,965	10%
硒鼓	10,912	10,383	5%
硫酸	10,850	13,195	-18%
paypal	10,757	9,237	16%
尿素	10,633	10,846	-2%
条形码	10,509	12,867	-18%
qq音速种子	10,385	7,117	46%
轴流风机	10,354	9,166	13%
沼气池	10,261	9,944	3%
电冰箱	10,044	18,211	-45%
发财	9,858	14,319	-31%
zippo打火机	9,796	9,470	3%
贝壳	9,796	10,935	-10%
歌莉娅	9,672	11,872	-19%
pos	9,641	11,154	-14%
纪念币	9,548	10,140	-6%
德生收音机	9,424	10,122	-7%
armani	9,393	6,835	37%
铂金	9,269	9,884	-6%
喷绘机	9,021	9,372	-4%
葛根	8,990	9,337	-4%
化工厂	8,866	9,682	-8%
宝姿	8,835	7,125	24%
膨润土	8,773	8,854	-1%
索尼数码摄像机	8,649	15,231	-43%
服务器机柜	8,618	6,884	25%
制氧机	8,525	7,186	19%
隔断	8,401	10,672	-21%
逆变器	8,308	9,590	-13%
lv包	8,246	6,455	28%
颜料	8,215	7,307	12%
减速器	8,091	8,885	-9%
pos机	7,843	7,146	10%
高岭土	7,843	6,522	20%
威海房产	7,750	5,780	34%
柠檬酸	7,719	7,390	4%
干燥剂	7,533	7,919	-5%
灭火器	7,440	10,195	-27%
天梭表	7,378	6,062	22%
西门子plc	7,316	9,231	-21%
条码	7,285	10,959	-34%
金属软管	7,285	7,467	-2%
无损检测	7,161	6,308	14%
建筑节能	7,037	8,328	-16%
北京商铺	6,727	5,797	16%
哑铃	6,572	6,357	3%
等离子	6,510	9,481	-31%
蜂鸣器	6,324	5,982	6%
网络机柜	6,200	8,707	-29%
串珠	6,169	6,058	2%
冷凝器	6,169	4,997	23%
井盖	5,642	5,457	3%
保险箱	5,642	5,552	2%
电脑租赁	5,425	5,965	-9%
悠悠球	5,363	4,831	11%
安必信	5,022	4,407	14%
丽姿	3,224	3,926	-18%
消消腩	2,635	3,083	-15%
a620	2,542	2,823	-10%
视乐奇	2,480	2,668	-7%
花语梦	2,294	2,670	-14%
波丽宝	2,263	2,462	-8%

Source: Baidu.com and China Analyst